Snow for Christmas is always a longshot in Middle Tennessee, but this year it would take a Christmas miracle for a white Christmas.
The long-range forecasts call for the high here to crack 60 much of next week including Christmas Day.
While the warmup will feel nice after this week’s frigid 20s and 30s, it’s hardly the stuff of Christmas cards and Bing Crosby songs.
In fact, it seems that this year one would have to travel all the way to the North Pole for a white Christmas. The projected high in Chicago on Christmas Day? 44; in normally snowy Buffalo? 38; in Boston? 40.
Even way up in Green Bay where you expect to see the Packers playing on ice this time of year, the Christmas Day high is a balmy 37; Christmas Eve day is even worse at 39 degrees - hardly cold enough for Santa to hook up the reindeer.
The National Climatic Data Center defines a white Christmas as one with at least 1-inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning. By that standard, Hendersonville has to be really lucky to get one, but it does happen once in a while.
The chances of having an inch or more of snow on the ground Christmas Day hovers around 2 to 3 percent for most of Middle Tennessee, says meteorologist Mary Mays of WKRN-TV in Nashville.
Far more likely is to have just a little bit of the white stuff. The National Weather Service, which puts together a map showing the entire country’s chances of snow on Christmas, reports that “there is a 19 percent chance of some snow (even if just a trace) on any given Christmas Day in Nashville and an 8 percent chance of measurable snow (0.1 inch or more).”
If you really want a white Christmas, book a flight to Minneapolis-St. Paul, which has the best odds of any major U.S. city at about 75 percent.
But don’t do it this year. Even in icy Minneapolis, highs will be in the mid to upper 30s for the days leading up to Christmas and 31 on the big day – with no hint of snow in the forecast.
Story by Andrew Maddern